As I intimated some time ago, the EU verses Microsoft case looks very much like being a case of Microsoft being found guilty and then getting to decide what it’s own punishment will be. In the same vein, Zdnet has said much the same thing (and much more eloquently then I). The fact that the “EU ordered” Windows XP without media player is being sold (or not sold as the case appears to be) at the same price as the normal version is a very good example of why it won’t work.
As ZDnet says, wouldn’t you like to be found guilty by a court of law then then asked to negotiate your punishment? Well worth the read if you ever find yourself in competition with Microsoft in Europe.